In Sudan’s war, ground fighting has intensified on more than one front in the last few days. The fighting led to a shift in the map of control, particularly in the Blue Nile and Kordofan regions. At the same time, the army’s leadership has initiated steps to facilitate political dialogue in areas under its control.
Increased firepower from regional actors and a suspected attempt at political legitimacy, analysts say, are among the motivations behind this surge of violence, with civilians caught in the crossfire.
While the army expanded its control in Kordofan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) advanced in the Blue Nile region. Using open-source data, Ayin documented 55 ground battles between July 25 and August 17, with the majority taking place in North Kordofan and Blue Nile states. The army’s operations in North Kordofan aimed to secure the strategic road network, while the RSF seized control of the key towns of Kurmuk and Geisan in Blue Nile State, providing them near-total control of the Sudan-Ethiopia border. Battles also flared in North Darfur in the Um Buru area, west of El Fasher, and in West Darfur, in the Bir Saliba corridor, just 7 kilometres from the Chadian border.
More weapons, less peace
Follow us on WhatsApp | LinkedIn for the latest headlines
The recent military escalation indicates a change in the nature of the military capabilities of both sides. The army was able to take control of four areas in the course of one day in late July in North Kordofan State, while more recently the RSF secured four sites in two days on the Blue Nile front.
Diaa El-Din Hussein, a military expert, tells Ayin that the two sides of the conflict are still linked by external relations that keep weapons flowing to them, making ending the war harder, especially since neither side is willing to make concessions. The Kordofan region, in particular, continues to witness mutual military buildups between the Sudanese army and the RSF, as the two sides have engaged in a violent round of fighting over the past five days in several areas near the state capital, El Obeid.
According to sources within the military based in Blue Nile, the RSF now have access to drones with more precise targeting capabilities along with advanced jamming equipment that has enabled them to make rapid advances within a few days. Meanwhile, there are indications that the army had acquired new weapons, with fighter jets seen flying over Khartoum and armoured vehicles and heavy weapons patrolling some streets during the army’s recent 72nd anniversary celebrations.
In Darfur, sources in the city of Nyala have observed a significant increase in air traffic over the past few days and say these flights are delivering military supplies and equipment. Ayin was unable to independently verify these claims.
Military motivations
Political analyst Ali al-Dali believes that the RSF are attempting to secure Darfur from all directions while also expanding into Kordofan and Blue Nile states. “Their aim is to push the war away from Darfur and create the conditions for the Tas’is (“Foundation”) government to assume its responsibilities within the areas under its control, similar to what the army did in Khartoum,” al-Dali told Ayin. He believes that retaking Khartoum is no longer among the RSF’s current military priorities.
According to National Umma Party member Misbah Ahmed, recent military developments indicate that both sides in the war are still betting on a military solution instead of a political one, citing the escalation of military operations and vitriolic rhetoric from both warring parties’ leaders.
Misbah believes that the chances of reaching a humanitarian truce have become more complicated, at a time when the prospects for resuming serious negotiations to end the war are diminishing. “The efforts exerted by the Quartet mechanism, along with the regional and international initiatives and endeavours on the table, have not yet received the necessary response from the warring parties.”
A war of legitimacy
The military developments coincide with Burhan’s announcement last week of a political dialogue that brings together Sudanese political forces with the aim of agreeing on the formation of a government and a legislative council in the army-controlled areas. Some of the army’s motivations for securing more military victories are linked to the army leaders’ recent efforts to hold this internal political process, says Diaa El-Din Hussein. In turn, the military expert says the RSF are attempting to thwart this process.
“The army commander is trying to advance on the ground to consolidate his authority over the areas under his control without any regard to the human cost of this goal,” Diaa added. “At the same time, the Rapid Support Forces are trying to thwart Burhan’s plan through military escalation in Kordofan and the Blue Nile.”
Burhan’s proposed dialogue includes a proposal to drop death penalty charges against opposition leaders and grant potential amnesty for leaders of the Civil Democratic Alliance (“Somoud”) and other political activists. Babiker Faisal, a Somoud member and head of the Executive Bureau of the Unionist Alliance, told Ayin that Burhan is exploiting military developments to launch a “cosmetic political process”. Burhan’s goals, Faisal says, are aimed at bolstering the legitimacy of his “de facto authority”, restoring international recognition, and forming governing institutions that would grant Burhan broad powers for an extended period.
A diplomatic source requesting anonymity had previously told Ayin that there was a plan, supported by regional actors, to bolster Burhan’s position of power after weakening the RSF militarily, through an internal political process that would grant him renewed legitimacy. According to the source, this plan involves postponing direct negotiations and focusing first on a military resolution.
Displaced with nowhere to go
Military expert Diaa El-Din Hussein believes the recent military escalation is linked to both sides’ ambitions to control money and power, while neither considers the suffering of the Sudanese people. This is particularly acute in Blue Nile State. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that violence in Geisan and Kurmuk has displaced 14,000 people in the state. Some of those displaced were forced to traverse dangerous roads or cross the Nile River for survival.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Wooden boats laden with families continue to cross the Nile River to reach Wad Al-Mahi. “Most of the displaced people are women, children and young people, and some of them were carrying a little food on their heads that would only last them for two days,” Emergency Response Room volunteer Youssef Al-Fah told Ayin. “Gathering around aid points increases the danger, so we distribute them to random, far-flung camps to ensure their safety and avoid direct targeting.”
The journey along land routes offers no greater safety, as transit corridors like the Abu Zaghouli road near Damazin are now riddled with extortionate check-points and banditry. “I was stopped, and my belongings were looted at gunpoint, and they took everything I had, even my remaining food,” one displaced man from Geisan told Ayin. “While I was trying to leave the place in a state of shock, an elderly woman told me in a low voice that the same gunmen had killed three travellers at the same point just minutes before I arrived.”
The options for the displaced in Blue Nile are so dire, many are forced to return to the ruins of their shelled hometowns, says Civil Society Initiative Secretary-General Ali Hajo. “The return of citizens to Geisan does not mean that the city has become safe or that services and water have been restored to it. Rather, it is a forced return from the hell of hunger and rains to the ruins of homes.”
