Why promised US breakthroughs in the Middle East failed to materialize

This should have been a banner week for American diplomacy in the Middle East, highlighting what U.S. President Donald Trump trumpeted as “historic†breakthroughs in ending the Iran war and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.

But events on the ground told a very different story.

Intended milestone moments on both diplomatic fronts failed to materialize. Both conflicts, while showing no immediate signs of reigniting into full-scale wars, continued to flare up. Iran, Hamas, and Israel all reiterated their steep preconditions for buying into the U.S. peace plans.

And the negotiating logjam was more than just an unwelcome contrast with the lofty claims Mr. Trump has made for his diplomatic deals.

It challenged a fundamental, long-term goal of his presidency: dialing back America's decadeslong focus on the Middle East and shifting it eastward, toward China. 

“Avoiding,†in the words of his formal National Security Strategy, “the ‘forever wars' that bogged us down in that region at great cost.â€

The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in late February has not yet turned into a forever war. But a conflict Mr. Trump initially described as a few weeks' “excursion†is now in its sixth month. It’s also been two months since a memorandum of understanding to end it was drawn up with Tehran.

At the time, the memorandum was hailed by the White House as “a historic breakthrough.â€

“Forged through decisive American strength, this agreement ensures Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon, reopens the Strait of Hormuz to free navigation, and puts America First – rejecting failed policies of appeasement … and endless wars that have weakened the United States for decades.â€

The agreement fell apart in July, and Iran resumed attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that the memorandum's vague wording recognized its control of the key waterway. Mr. Trump then briefly ordered a resumption of U.S. airstrikes.

But Iran continues to mount sporadic attacks against shipping and assert its claim over the strait.

This past Monday was the target date set in the memorandum for reaching a comprehensive peace, free navigation, and denuclearization agreement with the Iranians – and it passed without official comment.

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said there were “no talks or conversations going on or scheduled.â€

Still, with efforts to end the Iran war blocked, the president had clearly hoped that this week would bring more encouraging news on the other Middle East conflict he's striving to resolve: Israel's campaign in Gaza against Hamas, the Iranian-supported Islamist group behind the Oct. 7, 2023, murder and abduction of hundreds of Israelis.

His Gaza disarmament, reconstruction, and development plan was first unveiled in September 2025, as part of a diplomatic initiative with two clear early successes: ending the full-scale Gaza war and securing the release of Israeli hostages.

But for months after that, the Board of Peace he set up, under his chairmanship, to implement the plan, made no visible progress on its key provisions: the decommissioning of Hamas arms, a pullback of Israeli forces, and a transfer of control to Palestinian technocrats backed by an international security force.

Then, at the end of last month, that appeared to change.

“The Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza,†the president declared on his Truth Social platform. He called the deal “a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY†and an “AMAZING DEVELOPMENT, THAT EVERYBODY SAID COULD NEVER BE ACHIEVED!â€

That set the stage for follow-up talks this week, and a potentially more encouraging counterpoint to the diplomatic stalemate on Iran.

Mr. Trump's envoy, Jared Kushner, led a Board of Peace delegation in talks with Hamas in Cairo on Sunday, and met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Monday.

Hamas had indeed accepted the disarmament provision, under pressure from key regional players Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar.

But Hamas officials were reportedly conditioning acceptance on Israel's fulfillment of the October 2025 ceasefire terms. Israel, instead of gradually pulling back from the roughly 50% of Gaza it held, has since expanded its reach. It has also continued to launch airstrikes, targeting what it says are Hamas members and claiming hundreds of lives.

This week's talks in Israel did make some progress.

The prime minister had initially rejected the latest 15-point disarmament and withdrawal blueprint outright, saying Israeli forces would stay put until Hamas was fully and finally disarmed.

Mr. Kushner managed to get the Israeli leader to leave open the prospect of an eventual move forward. Working groups were agreed to examine ways forward on demilitarization, as well as on sanitation infrastructure in war-devastated Gaza.

Yet Mr. Netanyahu's immediate focus is on Israel's national election in October.

With polls showing most Israelis want him out, he's unlikely to soften his stand on Hamas disarmament, something even many of his opponents support.

Nor does he appear inclined to rein in Israel's military operations.

The day after his talks with Mr. Kushner, Israeli aircraft attacked a café near Gaza's Mediterranean coast, targeting a Hamas member who the military said had participated in the October 2023 attacks. It left six other people dead and injured more than a dozen.