Hope is a fragile thing. You can only hold on to it as long as you find reasons to believe tomorrow can be better. A woman, for instance, who has the resources and opportunity to rent her own flat will be more likely to leave her abusive husband and recover. A pupil who has their own room and desk to do their homework might find more meaning in thriving at school. And an elderly person who can afford to live in a neighbourhood where they feel safe and connected is less likely to become isolated and depressed.
It's not by chance that the examples above all revolve around the same topic. Affordable housing is possibly the most personal and most urgent social issue of our time. In Berlin, a city where 85% of residents live in rented accommodation, rents have risen by almost 70% in the past 10 years. And that is despite a rent control law that has been in effect since 2015. How? Loopholes and illegal practices have allowed property owners to continue putting pressure on the housing market. The social anxiety caused by this crisis, far from affecting just low-earners and single-parent households, affects vast parts of the middle class, too.
So what does a political party need to do to get into power in the state of Berlin? It's really not rocket science: focus on the housing crisis, provide solutions and avoid distractions by political opponents. This is exactly what the leftwing party Die Linke has been doing for months. The result of last Sunday's state election is striking: for the first time, Die Linke, with 25.7%, became the strongest party in Berlin. Not because everyone who voted for it suddenly agreed with everything else the party stands for. But because, more than any other party in this campaign, Die Linke made this issue unmistakably its own: the question of who gets to live in Berlin, and at what price.
The result is also remarkable because Germany is at a historic turning point: on the same day as the Berlin election, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) emerged – with 38% – as the largest party in a state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Just two weeks previously, it had secured a victory in Saxony-Anhalt with almost 44%. While the centrist parties, in an attempt to win back their voters, are desperately mimicking the AfD's ideas and rhetoric on migration, Die Linke could set an example in Berlin for the rest of the country: by actually listening to people's worries and working on ideas to improve their lives sustainably, instead of scapegoating.
The party's lead candidate, Elif Eralp, could become not only Berlin's first mayor from the left since Germany's reunification in 1990, but also Berlin's first mayor ever with a migration background. Born in Munich, she is the daughter of Turkish socialists who fled following the military coup in Turkey in 1980. Eralp put housing at the centre of her campaign. For many weeks the whole city was flooded with giant portraits of the 45-year-old wearing an optimistic smile and a golden nameplate necklace with the word Mietendeckel (rent freeze).
Eralp's programme was clear from the start: lower rents, more public housing and the implementation of Berlin's 2021 referendum in which a majority voted for more public ownership of housing to alleviate the accommodation crisis. It's not a completely new world that Eralp promises. All she had to do was simply speak about the one we are already living in.
But winning an election is one thing. Governing is another. Die Linke may have won the most seats, but it lacks a majority to run the state on its own. To turn its campaign promises into policy, Eralp has to negotiate with other parties, particularly the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. While Berlin's Greens have already spoken out in favour of a progressive coalition, the SPD is deeply divided.
Die Linke's top priority is a radical ambition: it would involve the compulsory purchase of the housing portfolios (which exceed 3,000 apartments) of large private real estate companies and their transfer into a democratically controlled non-profit, public body. The SPD's approach is to regulate the housing market much more strongly, expand public housing and potentially introduce a rent cap. Which sounds like everything that has already failed in the last decade.
At the same time, Die Linke enters negotiations under a microscope. Political opponents are questioning whether the party's positions are compatible with democratic values, while controversies surrounding antisemitism and parts of the party's political culture have become a major subject of public debate. Antisemitism is, historically and today, a problem inherent in German society as a whole, one that also exists within Die Linke and should be combated more decisively. However, the uproar about antisemitic rappers and an organised crime member who was spotted at Die Linke's election party seem like sham debates that overshadow the actual conflicts of interest.
Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has already stated, in response to the Berlin elections, that a federal law could be passed to prevent the expropriation of privately owned housing. Markus Söder, leader of the state of Bavaria, announced financial consequences for Berlin, if the “extremistâ€, “antidemocratic†and “antisemitic†Die Linke were to govern the capital. No such measures were announced for potential AfD-governed states, of course.
It is hardly surprising that conservatives are now foaming at the mouth, given that for decades they have been pursuing policies that benefit those who profit from the housing crisis. Yet, more and more Social Democrats are also up in arms, putting pressure on their party not to form a coalition with Die Linke.
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And this is where hope becomes fragile again. Because Eralp now has to do something harder than naming a problem: she has to find coalition partners, and for that she has to compromise – without making her voters feel betrayed. Now that would be a radical act, indeed.
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Fatma Aydemir is a Berlin-based author, novelist, playwright and a Guardian Europe columnist
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