JP Morgan warns rebound in UK inflation is warning shot for what could come next; oil prices rise again – business live

Back to our main story, the rebound in UK inflation on the back of higher household energy bills.

Rising inflation underlines the scale of Andy Burnham's cost of living challenge, writes our economics editor Heather Stewart in her analysis of today's inflation data.

July's increase in inflation, to 2.9%, is likely to be the first of several, underlining the challenge facing Andy Burnham in shielding consumers from a fresh cost of living squeeze this autumn.

Rising energy bills, as an increase in Ofgem's quarterly price cap came into force, were the main driver of the jump in inflation, from 2.6% in June. That was partly offset by cheaper fuel prices – the knock-on effect of hostilities easing in the Middle East, after Donald Trump hailed his “memorandum of understanding†with Iran in June.

However, fuel prices have risen again in recent weeks as hopes of a permanent end to the conflict have faded, and the Ofgem price cap for household energy bills in Great Britain is expected to rise by 4% in October.

Burnham's early decision as prime minister to cut VAT from electricity bills will help to ease the pressure on budgets, but it risks being overwhelmed by wider price rises.

Food prices have been remarkably quiescent so far in the face of the conflict, rising at an annual rate of only 1.3% in July, down from 1.7% a month earlier. But it is likely there is worse to come, as a result of extreme heat and drought through the summer months.

Household energy bills across Great Britain are expected to climb to a three-year high this winter as the impact of the Middle East war wipes out Andy Burnham's tax cut on electricity bills.

The government's cap on energy prices is on track to rise by 4% from this October to the equivalent of £1,729 a year through the last three months of 2026, which could hit struggling households especially hard this winter, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight.

The forecast quarterly price cap would be the highest since July 2023, after soaring energy market prices from the Middle East were compounded by the increased use of expensive gas in power plants during heatwaves across Europe.

The rising cost of gas will more than offset the new prime minister's promise to cut VAT from household electricity bills from October, which aimed to give voters “some breathing space†on living costs by shrinking bills by an average of £45 a year.

A dog food brand has recalled all of its fresh meals after reports that a recipe change may have caused some animals to develop an eye condition that, if left untreated, can lead to sight loss.

The brand Years said owners should stop feeding its fresh meals to their dogs “immediately†and also told them not to feed the meals to any other animal, or to donate or sell them.

In response to reports from some owners of pets not responding to treatment and in some cases losing their sight, Years told the Guardian:

The picture is mixed. Some [ophthalmologists] report dogs responding well to treatment … others have seen limited or slower responses.

The firm runs a subscription-based service delivering “personalised†meals and its products are also available at some retailers including Pets at Home.

Years said that as of the early hours of Wednesday, it had had 192 customers report “potential, yet unverified, eye issues†out of roughly 40,000 customers. It previously said that as of Sunday it had “received 57 suspected cases†of the condition, known as sudden bilateral dry eye.

Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at investing and trading platform IG, has looked at why Moderna's skin cancer vaccine breakthrough has sent its shares soaring – now up 90% in pre-market trading.

Moderna has delivered the breakthrough investors have been waiting for, with its personalised mRNA melanoma vaccine producing a positive Phase III result and becoming the first mRNA cancer therapy to clear a late-stage trial.

The vaccine helped patients stay cancer-free for longer and showed that mRNA treatments could work against cancer, not just infections. The shares were already up strongly this year, but today's [share] surge reflects the possibility that melanoma could prove to be the platform's pivotal proof of concept. There are still important questions around the size of the benefit and overall survival, but this is a major milestone that could transform Moderna's longer-term growth story.

The Chinese carmaker behind the irreverently nicknamed “Temu Range Rover†is plotting further UK expansion with a major research and development centre in England.

Chery, which makes the Jaecoo and Omoda car brands, said the launch of a new R&D site was “the next step in our long-term plan†for Britain as it also moves towards manufacturing its cars in the UK.

Chery's sales are growing at breakneck pace in Britain. In July, the Chery, Omoda and Jaecoo brands accounted for nearly 8% of UK market share, up from 3% last year, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

The Jaecoo 7, a hybrid electric built in China known as the “Temu Range Rover†for its low price and techy add-ons, became the top-selling model in the UK in March, but Chery currently has to bring them in from abroad.

The company is part-owned by the Chinese state, and has already signed a deal with Nissan to build its cars at its Sunderland plant, in a move that would begin mass-market Chinese car production in Britain for the first time from 2027.

The new R&D facility will open in late autumn, Chery said on Wednesday. Gary Lan, chief executive of its UK business, said:

We waited over 20 years for the right time to enter this market, and our ambition has always gone much further than simply bringing vehicles here.

An existing vehicle testing centre between Bedford and Milton Keynes that is used by engineering and motorsport companies – as well as the Ministry of Defence – will be the site of Chery's new R&D facility.

The centre, called UTAC Millbrook, will give Chery access to more than 70 kilometres of purpose-built test tracks for it to fine tune its cars for UK roads. Further down the line it will also use the site to work on self-driving cars and artificial intelligence.

Over on Wall Street, shares in US biotech company Moderna have surged almost 60% in pre-market trading after reporting positive trial results from its personalised mRNA cancer vaccine for melanoma.

Moderna and US pharma group Merck say they have achieved “positive topline results†for a phase three trial of their individualized neoantigen therapy and mRNA-based cancer therapy on patients with melanoma.

Known as mRNA-4157 (V940), the vaccine targets tumour neoantigens, which are expressed by tumours in a particular patient. These are markers on the tumour that can potentially be recognised by the immune system

“Today's results represent a landmark moment for adjuvant melanoma treatment,†said Professor Georgina Long, the study's principal investigator and medical director of Melanoma Institute Australia, Chair of Melanoma Medical Oncology and Translational Research at the University of Sydney.

The phase 3 trial began in 2024, after an earlier trial found the vaccines dramatically reduced the risk of the cancer returning in melanoma patients.

There is a sliver of relief for borrowers this morning – mortgage rates have dipped very slightly.

Moneyfacts reports that two and five-year loans are marginally cheaper than yesterday, reporting:

• The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.60%. This is down from 5.61% the previous working day.

• The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.63%. This is down from 5.64% the previous working day.

Over in the eurozone, the head of the Europen Central Bank has warned that Europe cannot afford to fall behind in the AI race.

In a speech in Geneva, Christine Lagarde warned that Europe's post-war growth model is eroding, meaning it mustn't miss out on the artificial intelligence revolution.

Lagarde said:

“Europe largely missed out on the first digital revolution, as the commercial gains from the spread of information and communication technologies were captured disproportionately elsewhere.

We cannot afford to repeat that experience with AI, the second digital revolution.â€

Lagarde pointed to “encouraging signs†that European firms are investing in AI; eurozone firms expect to allocate 9% of their total investment to AI this year.

But there are two barriers to successful AI take-up, she added. The first is fragmentation in the Single Market, which prevents the benefits from AI investment flowing between countries.

The second is fragmentation in capital markets, which makes it harder for European start-ups to attract capital, and can push them to relocate, often to the US.

The cost of living squeeze is set to intensify this winter, when energy bills are expected to rise again.

Consultancy Cornwall Insight has predicted that household energy prices will hit a three year high in October, when the quarterly price cap is next adjusted – on top of the 13% increase in July.

Cornwall predict the energy price cap will increase by 4%, lifting the annual bill for a typical household in Great Britain up to £1,729, up from £1,663, based on an Ofgem's updated definition of a typical consumer.

Based on Ofgem's previous calculations, annual bills would rise to an average of £1,941 per year, up from £1,862 currently, the highest average bill since July 2023.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said:

Rents are being pushed higher as the unintended consequences of the Renters' Rights Act play out. Some landlords have left the sector, which has reduced supply, while others have increased asking rents to reflect the additional financial risks they face. The consequences may be unintended, but they were not unexpected, and a policy designed to tip the balance of power towards tenants is adding to the financial pressures they already endure.

Turning to the sales market, he said:

House price growth is slowing to zero as borrowing costs remain high and uncertainty surrounds which taxes will be increased in the autumn Budget.

Weakness in the labour market means the Bank of England is unlikely to hike rates any time soon but almost six months into the Middle East conflict mortgage rates are still around a percentage point higher than they were before it started. A seasonal bounce in activity may be more detectable in autumn than it was in spring as rates stabilise, but that will also depend on the extent of any pre-Budget speculation and overall we expect prices to be largely flat this year.

Growth in private rents in the UK has picked up, while house price inflation slowed sharply at the start of the summer, according to official figures.

The price of an average home increased to £272,000 in June, taking the annual growth rate down to 2% from 3% in May, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.

It said price growth has been weaker this summer than last year in the months following the end of a stamp duty tax break in England and Northern Ireland.

The average private rent was up 3.7% at £1,393 in the 12 months to July, up from an annual rate of 3.3% in June. The ONS said:

• Average rents increased to £1,451 (3.8%) in England, £843 (4.5%) in Wales, and £1,016 (1.7%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to July.

• In Northern Ireland, average rents increased to £875 (2.3%), in the 12 months to May.

• In England, private rent annual inflation was highest in the North East (6.3%), and lowest in the South East (2.9%), in the 12 months to July.

• Average house prices increased to £293,000 (1.8%) in England, £213,000 (1.8%) in Wales, and £195,000 (2.3%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to June 2026.

Unitree, the world's biggest humanoid robot maker, has made a spectacular entry on to China's stock market, with its shares surging by more than 600%.

The Chinese company's robots have gained global fame via viral videos of them performing martial arts, running at Olympic speeds and serving as backup dancers for pop stars.

Shares in the business, officially known as Yushu Technology Co, rose as high as 1,100 yuan (£120.39) on Wednesday, up from an IPO price of just 150.8 yuan. Its gains were later pared back to a rise of nearly 500%.

Investors are searching for winners in robotics development, which has emerged as one of the key battlegrounds in the AI race.

Unitree, which was founded in 2016, shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots last year.

The market for human-like robots is expected to grow rapidly, with analysts projecting that sales could rise from around $2bn (£1.5bn) in 2025 to $300bn by 2035.

There was exceptional demand from Chinese retail investors in Unitree's IPO, with the tranche of shares dedicated to non-professional stockpickers oversubscribed by thousands.

Unitree is one of the few listed humanoid robot makers in the world. Its biggest competitor, AgiBot, is private and its smaller rival UBTech is listed in Hong Kong.

However at least half a dozen other Chinese humanoid robotic businesses are preparing to go public, including Deep Robotics and Leju Robotics.

Shares in Oxford Nanopore jumped more than 7% after the company, which has developed molecular sensing technology based on nanopores, reported a jump in half-year revenues and a smaller financial loss.

The company, a spinout from Oxford University founded in 2005 by three scientists who met at the university, produces devices used to identify viruses and spot variants in the genetic makeup of humans, animals and plants.

It made revenues of £116.7m between January and June, which grew by 12.3% on a constant currency basis, and its half-year loss shrank to £48m from £71.8m.

The news catapulted Nanopore shares to the top of the FTSE 250 index, up 7.2% at 130.3p.

Revenues climbed across different markets, with clinical revenue increasing 35.4%, biopharma 25%, industrial 6.2% and research 5.4%.

Sales were led by PrometION benchtop DNA and RNA sequencing devices, up 15.7% year on year, which allow researchers to do long-read sequencing from small microbial genomes to population-scale genomics and complex cancer research.

Deals included a licensing agreement with a global diagnostics company and an agreement with Californian genome analysis platform firm MyOme to incorporate Nanopore's sequencing technology into a rare disease platform.

Francis Van Parys, who replaced co-founder and long-time chief executive Gordon Sanghera in March, said:

Since joining the business, I have spent time listening to colleagues across the organisation and engaging with customers, partners and broader stakeholders. Together, we have refined our view of where our differentiated technology can create the greatest value. We are now translating that into a focused operational roadmap across four strategic priorities which will accelerate growth by concentrating our people, investment and innovation on a select group of high-potential applications across BioPharma, Clinical and Research end-markets.

Our next chapter is about harnessing the collective strength of Oxford Nanopore to deploy our differentiated technology seamlessly and at scale across an ever-expanding customer base. Our focus is clear: to accelerate adoption in our fastest-growing end markets and realise our longer-term ambition to build Oxford Nanopore into a $1bn-and-growing annual revenue business, delivering significant and sustainable value for all stakeholders.

A degree of calm has returned to government bond markets after increases to multi-decade highs in the last couple of days, while European stock indices are flat to moderately higher.

The yield, or interest rate, on the 10-year US Treasury bond is down 2.2 basis points at 4.684% while the 30-year bond yield has edged 1.4bps lower to 5.271%.

The UK's 10-year gilt yield has slipped 2.6 basis points to 5.049% while the 30-year bond yield is down 2.1bps at 5.805%.

Worries over the Iran war, where hopes of a permanent deal are fading and the ceasefire expired on Monday, coupled with concerns over rising government borrowing in advanced economies (partly due to a ramp-up in defence spending) led to sharp rises in bond yields globally in recent days, which means higher borrowing costs for governments.

In oil markets, the global benchmark Brent crude has advanced 51 cents, or 0.6%, to $91.53 a barrel, a three-week high. Traders worry about the future of shipping through the strait of Hormuz, with contradictory remarks from the US and Iran.

Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks were being held with Iran and that the strait, a key shipping passage for oil, gas, fertiliser and other products, was open – while Tehran said the waterway remained shut.

On the stock markets, the UK's FTSE 100 index is down nearly 10 points at 10,718, little changed from Tuesday. The German Dax is flat and the French CAC edged 0.3% higher.

The UK's competition watchdog has launched investigations into Trainline, Virgin Atlantic and Red Driving School, over concerns that all three companies displayed misleadingly low prices to their customers.

The Competition and Markets Authority's probes are part of a broader clampdown on so-called “drip pricingâ€, an illegal practice that makes a product appear cheaper by not including all mandatory fees.

The regulator said it opened investigations into the companies amid concerns that customers had not been shown the total price upfront when buying train and coach tickets, holidays or driving lessons.

Emma Cochrane, executive director for consumer protection at the CMA, said:

The first price customers see should be the price they pay.

Clear pricing helps people compare offers confidently and choose the option that works best for them.

Unexpected mandatory charges make this much harder, which is why the CMA initially put these firms on notice over concerns about their pricing practices and is now opening formal investigations.

Trainline said in a statement to the stock exchange that it had “proactively engaged with the CMA over several months†and was “taking steps to enhance the presentation of certain feesâ€. Shares in the business, which is the only one of the three companies that is listed on the stock exchange, fell by as much as 14% in early trading on Wednesday.

Virgin Atlantic said ​that “mandatory fees are indicated at multiple stages†when customers are booking trips, but that it was reviewing the concerns and will cooperate with the regulator. Red Driving School was approached for comment.

The CMA's investigations have been launched using its new consumer protection powers, which were granted last year.