Mladic was tried in The Hague for war crimes. Putin deserves the same fate

It is sometimes said that the full-scale Russian attack on Ukraine is the first major European conflict since the Second World War. 

The death of the Bosnian Serb military leader and war criminal General Ratko Mladic reminds us that this is not the case. He was chief of staff of an army which conducted a policy of ethnic cleansing for four years from 1992 culminating in the terrible Srebrenica massacre of July 1995 in which more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys were murdered. It was this crime which finally prompted determined intervention by Nato and spurred the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to issue an indictment against Mladic and other Bosnian Serb leaders.

The man who had orchestrated the entire war, president of rump Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic was spared, because he was seen as an essential partner in bringing the war to a close. This strategy failed comprehensively in 1998-1999, when Milosevic launched a massive wave of repression against the Kosovo Albanians which seemed to presage a repeat of the Bosnian experience. This time, Nato intervened swiftly and – after a few anxious months – prevailed. Milosevic was duly indicted by the ICTY.

Initially, both Mladic and Milosevic were able to live relatively free lives. Soon, though, the West began to close in on Serbian war criminals in Bosnia, and they became an embarrassment to a Belgrade which was seeking rehabilitation and, ultimately, membership of the European Union. 

Milosevic and Mladic were eventually arrested, turned over to the ICTY, tried at the Hague, convicted and sent to prison for the rest of their lives. Their fates showed that aggression does not pay, at least not if we don’t want it to.

Of course, Russia is not Serbia. It has a much greater capacity for destruction, especially through its huge nuclear arsenal. This makes direct western military intervention in support of Ukraine hazardous. Russia is also unlikely to seek, or be granted admission to, the European Union.

More importantly, though, Ukraine is not Bosnia. It is a much bigger, tougher nut. Ukraine is now teaching the West, as well as learning and taking from it. Despite the bravery of many Bosnians, their country never really escaped its victim status and was incapable of taking the war to Serbia itself. It was left to Nato to bring home the consequences of sponsoring aggression.

Though Bosnia suffered far more, Serbia also paid a hefty price in terms of military losses, refugees, territory and reputational damage. Today, the hammering of Russian oil refineries by Ukrainian drones offers a daily reminder to the population that the fire Putin started is beginning to approach their own homes.

Credit: X/Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Over the past few days, there has been a flurry of activity on the diplomatic front in Ukraine. Anything that brings the killing there to an end is welcome, but the inevitable demand for impunity for the architects of the Russian invasion should be resisted. Letting Milosevic off the hook in 1995 encouraged him to attempt a repeat performance in 1999.

This is why, whatever reservations one might have generally about the International Criminal Court (ICC), the West should stand by its March 2023 indictment of Putin for war crimes. Giving him a get out of jail free card in return for peace in Ukraine will only encourage him to try his luck elsewhere, perhaps the Baltic states.

Ukraine has shown no signs of giving up, and despite some serious wobbles, its supporting international coalition stands firmer now than at the start of 2025. The alliance between Western tech and the Ukrainian military is becoming closer by the day. 

Ukrainian drones and missiles are striking ever deeper into Russia. Soon they may be joined by home-built ballistic missiles. With the passage of time, the attacks will increase in number and accuracy until life in Russia begins to equate that in Ukraine.

The Russians entered this war under the childish delusion that as in Georgia, the Donbas, and Syria they would bomb and shell Ukraine, and nobody would bomb them. 

When Bomber Harris warned Germany in June 1942 that they had “sown the wind” and would now “reap the whirlwind”, most of their cities were still standing. By the time he had finished in 1945 they were rubble and would have been whether or not Nazi Germany had been defeated.

It is too late for Putin to learn the lessons of Serbia’s failure in Bosnia. His future, and that of his immediate circle, is bleak. So is that of the many Russians who directed and executed the war of aggression against Ukraine. But there is still time for Russia and most Russians to reverse course. They can end the war, turn over Putin to the ICC and begin to bring Russia “back” to Europe. If they do not, the wind their leaders sowed will become a whirlwind which consumes them as well.

Brendan Simms is professor of history at the University of Cambridge. He is the author of Unfinest Hour: Britain and the Destruction of Bosnia

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