World Cup predictions: Germany vs Curacao, Netherlands vs Japan and rest of matchday 4

John McGinn's deflected effort midway through the first half was enough to seal Scotland's first World Cup victory since 1990. They had to work hard for it, with Haiti carrying a threat throughout the game. We nearly experienced Qatar deja vu when Frantzdy Pierrot headed a great chance wide in the closing stages.

It was a crash back down to earth for all the predictors, though, in the final fixture of the matchday as Australia secured a surprise 2-0 victory over Turkey. Only Wilfred had given them a chance, with the rest of us choosing everyone's favourite dark horse at any major tournament.

Despite having terrific technical playmakers, a lack of goalscoring prowess cost Turkey as they had 72 per cent possession, but failed to convert any of their 30 shots on goal.

Australia were happy to be patient and wait for their opportunity that came midway through the first half when 20-year-old Nestory Irankunda finished smartly at the near post. Connor Metcalfe then sealed the points with a low, sweetly struck drive.

Nestory Irankunda scored for Australia in their 2-0 win (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

It was a relatively tough day all round with only the readers and Stanley predicting two of the four outcomes. It means the subscribers have taken an early lead, with five correct predictions.

How do the predictions work?

It's pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, the players to watch and key facts about the two teams. Then we will predict the match's outcome: either a WIN for one of the two countries, or a DRAW.

We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone does with their predictions (ranked by the percentage that prove correct) but we'll also keep a record of “streaks†— the number of calls everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic's interactive Soccer Pick'Ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.

So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard, and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.

Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo' can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.

Good luck, and enjoy!

Why not try The Athletic's World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round of 32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.

Predictions for Matchday 4

Germany vs Curacao, Group E, kick-off 1pm ET, 6pm BST

Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) ITV (UK)

Streak Rating Risk: 1/5. With all respect to Curacao, they should be no match for Germany.

Watch Rating: 2/5. There could be a lot of goals in Houston today, but this also could be a very uneven contest — unless Curacao can cause one of the World Cup's biggest ever shocks. 

The Athletic Expert says: “Germany are one of the most successful teams in World Cup history (winning it four times, being runners-up on four other occasions and coming third on four more) but have not made it past the initial group stage in the past two tournaments. Head coach Julian Nagelsmann will be keen to avoid the same fate.

“In Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, Germany have two of the world game's best playmakers, and their system is based on getting the ball to them quickly and letting them pull the attacking strings. For differing reasons, neither of them is coming off an exceptional club campaign, but combining those two with Kai Havertz in a front three should be more than enough for the Germans to begin their tournament with three points. 

“Curacao, a tiny island in the Caribbean of around 185,000 people, will become the smallest nation ever to compete at a World Cup when this match kicks off. They are managed by the hugely experienced Dick Advocaat, who returned to the role last month after originally stepping down in February to take care of his ill daughter. 

“They were unbeaten over 10 games during their Concacaf qualification campaign, with a squad filled with Dutch-raised talent playing possession-based football. How that approach works against elite opposition will likely determine how successful they are, and a 4-1 pre-tournament defeat against fellow qualifiers Scotland understandably raised concerns.â€

The Athletic Expert: GERMANY WIN

Guest subscriber Elizabeth: GERMANY WIN

Six-year-old Wilfred: GERMANY WIN

Stanley the dog: CURACAO WIN

Algo: GERMANY WIN

Surely there won't be an upset for Julian Nagelsmann and company on Sunday? (Tom Weller/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Netherlands vs Japan, Group F, kick-off 4pm ET, 9pm BST

Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) ITV (UK)

Streak Rating Risk: 5/5. The Netherlands will go into this game as the favourites but have been far from convincing in recent games and Japan are capable of causing them plenty of problems. 

Watch Rating: 5/5. This could be a really exciting affair between two sides who want to play attacking football. It could be one of the best matches of the whole group stage. 

The Athletic Expert says: “Expectations are high for Ronald Koeman and his Netherlands players, even if their performances in recent months have not been of the expected standards. Led by captain Virgil van Dijk, the Dutch squad is packed with quality, even with a couple of key players, in Xavi Simons and Matthijs de Ligt, missing through injury. 

“They are defensively solid, but can be a bit too reliant on Memphis Depay for goals, and they will need Cody Gakpo to put a very poor club season with Liverpool behind him and recapture the form he displayed in helping his country reach the 2024 European Championship's semi-finals.

“Despite the late withdrawal of midfielder and captain Wataru Endo due to injury and the absence of Brighton & Hove Albion winger Kauro Mitoma for the same reason, one of the strengths of Japan's squad is their depth. Takefuso Kubo, nicknamed the Japanese Messi, will carry the creative burden, and they have the Dutch Eredivisie's top scorer last season Ayase Ueda and Scottish champions Celtic's Daizen Maeda to carry the goal threat.

“Over his eight-year tenure, coach Hajime Moriyasu has built a vibrant, tactically flexible side capable of beating elite sides and not just competing with them. Japan defeated Spain and Germany in the 2022 World Cup finals' group stage and have wins against Brazil and England in friendlies over the past eight months.â€

The Athletic Expert: DRAW 

Guest subscriber Elizabeth: JAPAN WIN

Six-year-old Wilfred: JAPAN WIN

Stanley the dog: JAPAN WIN

Algo: NETHERLANDS WIN

---

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador, Group E, kick-off 7pm ET, 12am (midnight) BST

Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) BBC (UK)

Streak Rating Risk: 4/5. All three results feel like they're on the table for this game in Philadelphia. The defensive solidity of both sides points to a low-scoring affair that could end all square or be decided by a single goal. 

Watch Rating: 2/5. This might turn out to be a defensive stalemate, with a draw not a bad result for either team to kick off their campaign. 

The Athletic Expert says: “Expectations are high for Ivory Coast with their football federation president Yacine Idriss Diallo wanting a run to the quarter-finals, which is the same stage they got to in last season's Africa Cup of Nations. 

“They did not concede a single goal in the 10 qualification games, and that defensive solidity is complemented by experienced forward Nicolas Pepe and exciting wide talent including Manchester United's Amad and RB Leipzig's Yan Diomande, although they do lack a goalscoring focal point.

“Ecuador's defensive record is also impressive as they conceded just five goals in 18 South American qualifying games, en route to finishing above Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay in second place — and that was after starting their campaign on minus-three points as punishment for using an ineligible player in a previous competition. 

“The problem they have is their top talent is heavily weighted to the defensive end of the pitch, with Piero Hincapie, Willian Pacho and Joel Ordonez shielded from midfield by the excellent Moises Caicedo. Enner Valencia, who played in the 2014 World Cup, is still going strong at 36 and provides their most likely goal threat.â€

The Athletic Expert: DRAW

Guest subscriber Elizabeth: ECUADOR WIN

Six-year-old Wilfred: ECUADOR WIN

Stanley the dog: IVORY COAST WIN

Algo: IVORY COAST WIN

Chelsea's Moises Caicedo is a star for Ecuador (Patrick Smith/FIFA via Getty Images)

---

Sweden vs Tunisia, Group F, kick-off 10pm ET, 3am BST

Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) ITV (UK)

Streak Rating Risk: 4/5. Another game where you don't quite know what to expect from either side. Based purely on the talent on the pitch, Sweden should win in the Mexican city of Monterrey, but they've shown in the recent past that they are a risk.

Watch Rating: 3/5. A tip of the cap to anyone staying awake in the UK to watch this one. Given the strength of a group also featuring the Netherlands and Japan, this is a match both these sides probably need to win, which could make it a more open affair.  

The Athletic Expert says: “It is pretty incredible that Sweden managed to qualify for this tournament. They did not win a group game during qualification but earned a place in the UEFA play-offs in March because of their successful finish in the third tier of the 2024-25 Nations League. They then took full advantage of that good fortune, mind, beating Ukraine 3-1 and Poland 3-2 to secure their place.

“Graham Potter took over from the sacked Jon Dahl Tomasson last October and led them to that play-offs success. Their problems are not all sorted though, which was shown in a 3-1 defeat to neighbours and fellow qualifiers Norway in the run-up to the tournament. They have started to find the back of the net, scoring nine goals in the past four games. Strikers Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres experienced very different seasons at club level with Liverpool and Arsenal respectively, but hold the keys to Sweden's success, as the side are without the very influential Dejan Kulusevski in midfield because of injury.

“Tunisia's build-up to the tournament has been far from ideal as they suffered two warm-up defeats, losing 1-0 to 10-man Austria before being hammered 5-0 by Belgium in a match where they were the side who had a player sent off. 

“Sabri Lamouchi only took over after Tunisia exited the Africa Cup of Nations in the round of 16 at the start of the year, so has only been in charge of four matches (in which they have scored just once). He has put his faith in youth and built on the defensive solidity that defined their qualification — Tunisia did not concede a goal in the 10 matches, winning nine and drawing the other. Midfielder Hannibal is a key player, and had a better second half of the season with relegation-bound Premier League side Burnley until injury disrupted it in March, but you question where the goals are going to come from.â€Â 

The Athletic Expert: SWEDEN WIN

Guest subscriber Elizabeth: SWEDEN WIN

Six-year-old Wilfred: SWEDEN WIN

Stanley the dog: SWEDEN WIN

Algo: SWEDEN WIN

Our picks for June 14, 2026