While in the US Senate, Kelly Ayotte (R) tried to kill Obama's diplomacy with Iran, branded his deal a capitulation, and demanded armed confrontation for years. Now that war—which Trump twice promised would end in “total victory†within two weeks—is grinding into its fifth month and hardening into the kind of forever war Trump once promised to end.
Few American politicians have built their careers agitating for armed conflict with Iran more than New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R).
Now that conflict is here, driving gas prices back above $4 a gallon, and recent polling in New Hampshire shows nearly two-thirds of Granite Staters believe going to war was the wrong decision—opposition on par with the historic peaks of disapproval Americans ever registered against Vietnam and Iraq—dragging the approval of President Donald Trump's handling of foreign policy in the state to the lowest levels of either of his terms.
After what appeared to be a potential end when an agreement was signed in June, the war reignited last week after President Donald Trump declared his own ceasefire “over.â€
The Strait of Hormuz, the crucial bottleneck for the world's oil supply that this war enabled Iran to control and monetize for the first time, was declared closed again in mid-July—and remains effectively shut to Western shipping, with Iran's toll authority now charging vessels up to $2 million for passage.
On July 13, Trump announced something more permanent: the United States as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,†reimbursed “from this point forward†at 20% of all cargo, with “the process and formation†to “begin immediately.â€
The president who campaigned on ending America's forever wars had, in a single post on Truth Social, announced a new one.
Iran's grip on the strait has been among the most costly US miscalculations of the conflict, with Granite Staters paying for it on every gas pump and heating bill in the state.
It is hard to overstate just how central confronting Iran was to Ayotte's efforts to build a national profile during her time in the US Senate in the 2010s. In 2015, she signed Republican US Sen. Tom Cotton's open letter to Iran's leaders. It was an attempt to kill President Barack Obama's nuclear diplomacy in mid-negotiation.
The backlash at home was ferocious. The Nashua Telegraph called the letter “shameful and stupid.†The Concord Monitor also ran editorials at the time criticizing her decision to sign the letter, saying, “It's not every day that a United States senator attempts to undermine U.S. foreign policy and weaken the nation in one cursive swoop.â€
She refused to yield.
In an op-ed defending her signature (Union Leader, 3/17/15), she demanded any agreement “dismantle†Iran's nuclear program rather than “simply delay†it. She insisted on “the toughest possible sanctions until Iran verifiably and permanently ends its nuclear weapons program.†She required that the Senate “vote to approve or disapprove†the result.
When Obama's deal was finalized anyway, she branded it “an historic capitulation.â€
Leaving the US Senate didn't quiet her. In 2019, she joined United Against Nuclear Iran as a senior advisor, a hardline pressure group whose gatherings drew advocates of overthrowing Iran's government.
She co-wrote an op-ed that year declaring that “Iran must be forced to abandon its nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program, and support for terrorism.â€
In 2021, she signed a letter demanding “zero enrichment,†“full inspections and verification,†and no “sanctions relief […] in exchange for mere negotiations.†Through it all, she insisted the pressure served peace. “A bad deal actually makes conflict with Iran more likely,†she wrote in 2015 about Obama's deal—a deal that was followed by a decade in which the two countries never went to war.
This year, Donald Trump brought the conflict with Iran that Ayotte so desperately wanted.
And the politician who was never quiet about Iran went mute.
When New Hampshire's National Guard deployed to fight the war, she deferred to Washington, telling reporters that the state was coordinating with the Pentagon.
When Statehouse reporters pressed her on the war this spring, the Concord Monitor reported, she said questions about it should go to those in DC.
Granite Post asked her office on June 18 where she stood on Trump's Iran deal to end the conflict, which pledged a $300-billion reconstruction fund for the Iranian government—a provision so toxic it turned even staunch Trump allies like Ted Cruz against the deal. Ayotte did not respond.
More than a month later, she still hasn't.
With that deal now falling apart and the United States seemingly on the precipice of another forever war in the Middle East, Iran hawks like Ayotte seem less vocal than ever.
In the second week of July, the unraveling became a rupture.
Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait again. Trump declared the ceasefire “over†at the NATO summit and called Iran's leaders “scum†and “sick people.†Now, even that deal is going up in smoke.
By July 13, the war was tipping outward. A third wave of US strikes hit dozens of targets over the weekend. Iran widened its attacks to bases in Oman and declared the strait closed outright.Â
Trump, meanwhile, announced the United States is “taking over†the waterway itself and charging a 20 percent fee “on all cargo shipped,†a fee of the kind he had called “unacceptable†three weeks earlier.
The war is again killing Americans.
On July 17, an Iranian ballistic missile struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, killing 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas—the first US deaths since the ceasefire collapsed. Another service member at the base remains missing after unidentified remains were found at the site.
At least three US service members have been killed since fighting resumed, and every escalation of the war has landed on New Hampshire kitchen tables.
Oil climbed and stocks fell Monday on Trump's announcements.
Ship crossings of the strait fell by half last week, per tracking firm Kpler. Gas prices remain more than 60 cents higher than a year ago, the center of what CNN calls a stubborn cost-of-living crisis. New England prices spiked 57 percent in the war's first three months. Heating oil hit record highs, with a minimum delivery jumping from about $390 to $538. One in five New Hampshire households already spends a tenth of its income on utilities. In a single month, Granite Staters paid $38 million more for gas. The war itself has cost more than $30 billion and 14 American lives.
Trump dismissed such concerns as “peanuts.â€
By spring, Republican governors elsewhere were acting. Georgia's Brian Kemp suspended his state's fuel taxes in March. Indiana's Mike Braun followed in April and has extended the holiday ever since, saving drivers roughly 60 cents a gallon. “This is a gas savings [that] is kind of a lifeline through a tough period like this,†Braun said.
Ayotte declined, saying only that she was “always concerned about the affordability of energy for Granite Staters.â€
