La inflación de EE. UU. alcanza el 4.2% en mayo mientras que el conflicto de Trump en Medio Oriente hace subir los precios

US stocks are falling at the open – the blue chip S&P 500 index is down 0.4%, while the tech heavy Nasdaq is down 0.5%.

Meanwhile oil prices are rising further, with Brent crude – the international benchmark – now up 1% to $92.45 a barrel after President Donald Trump warned Iran will have to “pay the price†for taking “too long†to negotiate a deal to extend a ceasefire and reopen the strait of Hormuz.

Octopus Energy has reportedly ended a long-running row over its financial resilience by offering the regulator proof that it has met its capital targets.

Great Britain's biggest household energy supplier was under pressure to prove its financial buffers were large enough to meet the tougher financial rules put in place by Ofgem after scores of suppliers went bust during the 2022 energy market crisis.

Ofgem said all suppliers must always have enough capital to be above a minimum floor of £0 for each dual-fuel customer, and be on track towards holding £115 net adjusted assets per dual-fuel customer.

Octopus Energy, which serves around 8m households in the UK, initially missed the deadline for meeting the new rules which could require the company to hold a capital buffer of around £800m to withstand an unexpected surge in energy costs.

But the country's fastest growing energy company has now submitted its financial reports to Ofgem for the regulator's approval, according to a report in the Financial Times, which would end years of criticism from rivals over its failure to meet the industry-wide targets.

British Gas boss Chris O'Shea first took aim at plans put forward by Octopus to protect consumers in 2022, and last year claimed it was “criminal†that Ofgem had not banned Octopus from taking on new customers until its financial targets were satisfied.

At the time, an Octopus Energy spokesperson referred to the outburst as “yet more naked self-interest from British Gas†and said the company “would do well to obsess about their customers rather than their rivalsâ€.

Stephen Brown, chief North America economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, notes that the 0.2% month-on-month rise in core CPI was not as bad as feared, which he says suggests that price pressures are not broadening.

The details were about as good as the more dovish FOMC members could have hoped for, with core goods prices falling by 0.1% m/m, driven in part by declines in many items that had previously been lifted by tariffs.

There was once again a helping hand from another steep fall in medical care commodities, which presumably reflects the Trump administration's efforts to bring down drug prices.

New vehicle prices fell by 0.3% and used vehicle prices only edged up by 0.1%, with the latter move once again confounding our expectations for a larger increase based on the auction price data. For services, the big surprise was that transportation services prices fell by 0.6% m/m despite another 2.7% gain in airline fares, with motor vehicle insurance and car & truck rental prices both dropping back sharply. The latter may reflect a drop in travel demand as a result of higher air fares.

Perhaps the only major concern for the Fed was that rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent rose by 0.36% m/m and 0.30% m/m respectively, slightly firmer than their prior norms of closer to 0.25%, which casts doubt on the view that there is still more shelter disinflation to come. Otherwise, food prices also rose by a softer 0.2% m/m.

The 4.2% rise in US consumer prices was the highest reading since April 2023. Isaac Stell, investment manager at the broker Wealth Club, says the “most logical conclusion†from the figures is ithat interest rates may need to rise in the near term to contain inflationary pressures in the American economy.

However, with Kevin Warsh now at the helm of the Federal Reserve, the key question is whether he will maintain the prudence and discipline associated with Powell, or in the face of political pressure, relent and take the Presidential view.â€

Arielle Ingrassia, an associate director at the wealth manager Evelyn Partners, notes that gas prices in the US have been rising very strongly.

The upside was again driven primarily by energy, with gasoline prices rising 7.0% on the month and the broader energy index increasing 3.9%, accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase in headline CPI. Airline fares also remained firm, rising 2.7%, highlighting the continued impact of higher fuel costs on travel-related inflation.

…At the same time, the report still showed only modest evidence of broader second-round inflation effects. While higher energy costs continue to feed through into parts of the transport and travel sectors, several categories remained soft, including motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and new vehicles. The overall picture remains closer to an energy and transport shock than a broad-based inflation spiral – at least for now.

But George Brown, senior economist at the asset manager Schroders, says while energy prices are driving US inflation, recent strong payroll data also suggests the economy is running hot.

Ahead of the Fed's meeting next week, the question is now whether it can keep rates on hold without falling behind the curve. All eyes will be on Warsh's debut press conference. He will need to convince markets that the Fed remains committed to price stability. If he leans more dovish, markets may begin to question that commitment, pushing Treasury yields higher.â€

US stock futures are paring back some of their earlier losses now that May inflation data has arrived in line with what economists had been expecting.

Futures for the S&P 500 are now down 0.5%, while futures for the tech heavy Nasdaq are down 0.6%.

US inflation hit 4.2% in May, as the energy shock triggered by the war in Iran drove up prices.

That is in line with what economists had been expecting, but still marks an acceleration of a 3.8% year-on-year rise in April.

Core prices, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.9% compared with a year ago. Energy prices jumped up 23.5% and food by 3.1%.

Futures for the US stock market are pointing towards another fall later this afternoon – futures for the S&P 500 are down 1.1%, while futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq are down 1.6%.

Investors are growing jittery ahead of US inflation data, which is scheduled to be released at 1.30pm UK time. Economists expect that the headline figure will rise to 4.2% thanks to a global spike in energy prices.

An even higher reading would feed expectations that the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates. Investors grew especially nervous about this prospect last week, after an unexpectedly strong jobs report.

The German economy is at risk of a technical recession this year due to the Iran energy shock, economists at the DIW research institute have said.

DIW now expects that Europe's largest economy will report a contraction in output in both the second and third quarters of this year, which would mark a technical recession.

It still expects that overall the German economy will grow by 0.5% in 2025, and 0.8% in 2027 – but that represents a downwards revision of half a percentage point compared with its previous forecast.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, DIW's head of forecasting, said:

The energy price shock is noticeably slowing the recovery – but we are not experiencing a repeat of 2022/23.

The Chinese car company BYD has said it aims to be the world's biggest automaker within the next five years.

Targeting Toyota's long-held top spot, BYD's founder and chair, Wang Chuanfu said he was confident it could overtake global rivals through rapid advances in battery technology and fast charging, as well as growing production overseas, including Europe.

He said at the company's annual shareholder meeting in Shenzhen:

BYD will truly become the number one automaker globally in terms of ​scale in five years.

Overnight the company announced plans to spend nearly £1.8bn in Europe to develop infrastructure for five-minute “flash charging†of its cars.