Israelis fear polarization, internal conflict over Iran threat, survey reveals | The Jerusalem Post

According to the report, which is based on the institute's surveys and analyses over the past year, Israelis are most worried about internal polarization and the danger of civil war.

Six in 10 Israelis, 60%, agree that there is currently a real danger of bloodshed and physical violence inside the country, meaning civil war.

Additionally, about half of Israel's secular Jews, which is the largest group among Israeli Jews, say they are no longer convinced that Israel is the right and safest place for their children and grandchildren to live.

In a group-by-group breakdown, the secular public rates its closeness to haredim at a particularly low 1.81 out of 10.

The move to a direct regional campaign, Operation Rising Lion, and the change in IDF chiefs of staff boosted public trust in the senior IDF command to a record 82%. At the same time, the public is skeptical about the achievements in Gaza, more so than about the conduct of the campaign in Iran and Lebanon.

Most Israelis now estimate that Hamas rule in Gaza will continue in one form or another, and express disappointment that Trump's plan for Gaza has so far not led to Hamas being disarmed or to significant reconstruction, despite the completion of the ceasefire and the return of the hostages.

The war has pushed the Jewish public to the right. The share of those identifying as “deep right†rose from 11% before the war to 19% today, and nearly half, 49%, of young people who defined themselves as “left close to center†before the war said they had moved to the right.

Most people in the public view the state budget as a political document skewed toward coalition needs, and demand sharp cuts to government ministries, coalition funds, and sectoral budgets directed to the haredi sector.

The eruption of antisemitism around the world is troubling Israelis. For example, at the height of the protest wave on US campuses, 87% of survey participants said they were worried about it.

Half of the public says they recognize that global antisemitism operates as a pincer movement, coming with similar force from both ends of the political spectrum, from the far left and the far right.

The public in Israel believes the solution for world Jewry is aliyah to Israel. Sixty-six percent of Jews in Israel recommend moving to Israel, and 71% of right-wing supporters and 49% of the overall Jewish public in the country would recommend that Diaspora Jews make aliyah under any existential circumstance.

The annual report weighs public attitudes using three permanent deep-measure indices: hope, closeness, and agreement, on a scale of 1 to 10.

The hope index, calculated at 7.13 and the highest of the three, rose from 6.48 the year before, indicating that 60% of Israelis are optimistic about the country's future.

Seventy-five percent of Israelis assume their family and friends will continue living in Israel, and about two-thirds believe Israel is the right place for their children and grandchildren.

However, the average masks an ideological abyss. While supporters of the political right show a particularly high hope score of 9.05, among supporters of the left, the index plunges to just 3.67, an unprecedented gap that indicates polarized worldviews regarding the same existential space.

The closeness index, calculated at 5.51, showed a worrying decline from the previous year’s 5.95, indicating a deepening of polarization between parts of society.

The report states clearly that the main factor currently preventing Israelis from feeling close to one another is not nationality, ethnicity, or origin, but belonging to an opposing political camp, right versus left.

Political polarization breaks everything: Left-wing supporters rate their closeness to right-wing supporters at just 1.25, while right-wing supporters rate their closeness to the left at 3.48.

The agreement index had a score of 3.71, indicating a slight increase compared with 2024, when it stood at 2.88. The Israeli public does show relative agreement on basic democratic issues, with 59% agreeing that democracy is a combination of majority rule and the protection of human rights.

But the findings show that among Jews, there has been a decline in agreement with the idea that democracy means both elements together, compared with three years ago, 63% this year versus 80% three years ago.

Seventy-eight percent of Israelis agree with the Declaration of Independence's statement on the need for complete social and political equality of rights for all citizens of Israel, regardless of religion, race, or sex.

However, on issues touching on the state's identity, the Jewish character of the state, and the solution to the Palestinian conflict, national agreement falls to just 31%. For example, 36% of Jews think Israel is not Jewish enough, while 42% of secular Israelis think it is too Jewish. In other words, only a minority thinks the state's level of Jewishness is just right.

As for the conflict with the Palestinians, a record 49% of Jews support strengthening control in the territories and expanding settlements, while 66% of Arabs support a two-state solution.

JPPI President Prof. Yedidia Stern said, “Israeli society does indeed show resilience, determination, and optimism, with the hope index rising, but at the same time it operates as a fractured, polarized society suffering from deep existential anxiety about structural collapse, with the agreement index falling sharply.”

“While supporters of the coalition, many of whom belong to the religious and haredi groups, feel that Israel is strong and has a bright future, a high share of Israelis from the secular public, the largest group among Jews, are struggling with the future and with the place of the next generation. To such an extent that about half of the secular public is not convinced that Israel is the right place for their children and grandchildren to live,†he added.

He also explained how this anxiety is in line with another hard statistic: the Israeli public sees the internal rift as its main and most dangerous enemy. “Our disagreements are mainly emotional, identity-based, and camp-based. These are deep foundations that require a long-term action plan to neutralize the social explosive material. It is possible to cultivate a space of agreement in Israeli society, but it requires a practical action plan aimed at that, and not at defeating the identity-based rival,†he said.

“Public leaders must act by every means possible to place social cohesion in Israel at the top of the national agenda. This is the main issue that should occupy whoever is elected to lead the coalition after the coming elections. That is how he or she will be judged. To that end, efforts should be made to form the broadest possible coalition after the elections, and to push it to set rules of the game for managing disputes through a ‘thin constitution' that will not seek to decide ideological issues, but rather to establish fairly and efficiently the boundaries of what is allowed and what is forbidden in the political game. Once the rules of the game for managing the Israeli dispute are set and anchored, the collapsing closeness index will change direction toward healing and recovery,†he concluded.